"Testing the waters"

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"Testing the waters"

Post by Ryan » Sun Jun 03, 2012 1:46 am

"Testing the waters"

There are four useful traits in medicine:
- Basing possibilities off signs and symptoms,
- Basing probabilities off an assessment, they are your potentials,
- A diagnostic test or evaluation, to bring a conclusion, of the situation, and,
- Planning or pre-plans for each known or possible condition.

They are apart of your A&P, assessment and planning phase.

I began to think about this in relation to Close Quarter Combat and the ways operators could test the waters and trials ahead of them, the possibilities and probabilities of a future or current event and even a test which confirms it.

To be able to assess the situation in confirming detail would have a dramatic effect on the way a firefight pans out. For an unknown situation with only known facts (such as enemy weaponry, general location) you have to be able to think on your feet and conduct very fast assessments of situations.

To break it down:
- Target indications and signs, what do we look for?
- What possibilites are exposed from that?
- Does further assessment lead to more probable events? If not, do we plan?
- What test can we conduct to confirm something?
- Should we have pre-plans for common events and do these tests add to a plan or diminish it?

The taliban use it, as they are a small force, to expose enemy numbers, reaction time to a said event and capabilities.
I.e. an IED - How does my enemy react to it? What are their tactics? How can we use it against them or find an opening?

They also use the tactic "ghosting" to confuse the enemy and try to make them move on him, only to be caught in a bigger attack.
This is a defensive version of this subject rather than the offensive.

For example:
Target indication - a man wearing a balaclava, holding a baseball bat, being aggressive towards a shopkeeper.
Possibilities - robbery, murder, query gang-related, query getaway vehicle or other members.
Probabilities - robbery, common thug, intimidation tactics.
Test - Call out you are phoning the police and watch for reaction.
Plan - Phone the police.
Pre-plan - You've already phoned the police while watching the situation unfold.

Ok, not that good of an example, because it's a known threat, a known location, a number of isolated probabilities and plans. Which is great! It's a good event in terms of the known and how you can prepare for it...

A better example:
Target indication - face-off in the hallway, suspect runs in a room.
Possibilites - door ambush, barricade, camping.
Probabilities - door ambush, corner camping threat as he is in obvious fear.
Test - mirror the door entry point, have one member run past it to get the suspect to engage or move, isolating his position in the room.
Plan - base the action off the test or probabilities if the test was negative, i.e. corner flood if more probable of corner threat.
Pre-plan - predictable enemy move, chase them down into the room with a team, allowing little time for enemy action.

What tests can you think of to confirm enemy action or events?
CQB-TEAM Education and Motivation.

"Pragmatism over theory."
"Anyone with a weapon is just as deadly as the next person."
"Unopposed CQB is always a success, if you wanted you could moonwalk into the room holding a Pepsi."

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